NAV benchmarks for BTC and ETH ETFs underpin the forecast.
SEC’s final deadline for XRP ETF approval is 12 October.
Polymarket data shows a 79% chance of approval by year-end.
Anticipation over an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) is building in the crypto sector as analysts weigh up potential inflows, market impacts, and regulatory dynamics.
While rumours and delays have shaped much of the recent conversation, data-driven forecasts from key institutions now offer a clearer picture.
Standard Chartered Bank projects that a US-listed XRP spot ETF could attract between $4.4 billion and $8.3 billion in inflows within its first year, based on net asset value benchmarks seen in existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
This projection, while optimistic, comes with caution from others in the market.
Standard Chartered bases its projection on ETF benchmarks
Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said NAV-to-market-cap ratios from already approved US spot ETFs were used to model potential XRP ETF inflows.
Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs currently show NAVs of around 6% and 3% of their respective market caps.
Applying these ratios to XRP’s market capitalisation results in a $4.4 billion to $8.3 billion range.
Kendrick highlighted data from Bitwise ETPs in Europe, where XRP, Solana, and Litecoin trade alongside BTC and ETH.
He noted that altcoins account for a greater share of ETP NAV relative to their market caps, although this may reflect the lower number of products available for altcoins compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
XRP price forecast revised amid ETF optimism
Based on anticipated ETF inflows, Standard Chartered forecasts a significant XRP price increase.
The bank expects XRP to rise to $5.50 by the end of 2025 and reach $8.00 by 2026.
The target for 2029 is set at $12.25.
This forecast assumes XRP ETF approval and a general continuation of growth in digital asset investment vehicles.
For comparison, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in Q2 2025, $200,000 by the end of the year, and $500,000 by 2028.
XRP is expected to keep pace, albeit with lower overall adoption and inflation differences.
XRP’s current inflation rate stands at 6%, compared to Bitcoin’s 0.8%.
Bitfinex analysts issue cautious counterpoint
Despite bullish projections, not all market observers are convinced that XRP ETFs would generate the same excitement as Bitcoin products.
Analysts from crypto exchange Bitfinex argue that investor interest may be spread thin across a growing list of altcoin ETFs.
As such, XRP might not see inflows comparable to Bitcoin, even if approved.
Their caution reflects broader concerns about ETF market saturation and regulatory clarity.
While Bitcoin enjoys legal clarity as a commodity, XRP has faced classification issues and legal disputes that may influence investor confidence.
Timeline for XRP ETF approval remains uncertain
Several financial firms, including Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares have filed for XRP ETFs with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Bitwise’s application was officially acknowledged on 18 February, setting a maximum deadline of 240 days, or 12 October, for a final decision.
This mirrors the timeline applied to Bitcoin spot ETFs earlier in 2024.
However, other altcoin ETF applications such as those for Solana and Litecoin could impact when an XRP decision is made.
According to Kendrick, Litecoin may be prioritised given its similarity to Bitcoin and its historical treatment as a commodity.
Polymarket data shows that as of now, the probability of XRP ETF approval by 31 July is 39%, rising to 79% by the end of the year.
Analysts including Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas suggest Litecoin could be the first among altcoins to secure approval, followed by HBAR and eventually XRP and Solana, which face unresolved security classification challenges.
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