Key takeaways:
The Bitcoin Quantile Model shows “heat” with price on the verge of an “acceleration phase,” echoing Q4 2024 when BTC embarked on a 45% post-election rally.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has formed a new intraday high on each daily candle this week, with the crypto asset slowly grinding toward a new all-time high. In line with its current trajectory, 21st Capital co-founder Sina noted that Bitcoin is approaching a pivotal moment around the $108,000 level.
The Bitcoin Quantile Model update shows that BTC’s market reflects the same “heat” that was present after President Trump’s post-election rally and the spot ETF-driven highs during Q4 2024. The model, which uses quantile regression to map Bitcoin’s price phases on a logarithmic scale, indicates the cryptocurrency is in the Transition Zone, a critical juncture before the Acceleration Phase. Throughout Q4, 2024, Bitcoin rallied by 45% after entering a price discovery period above $74,500.
Bitcoin Quantile Model. Source: X.com
As illustrated in the chart, once it breaks into the “Acceleration” Phase, it could trigger BTC’s next leg or the mid-phase, typically between the 33% and 66% range. Based on the model, BTC is expected to progressively target price levels of $130,000 and $163,000 in the coming months.
However, anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 believed a price target above $200,000 is a “reasonable” expectation for 2025. Basing the projection on Bitcoin’s “power curve,” the analyst noted that BTC’s position relative to gold has significantly improved since April.
From a technical standpoint, this view is supported by the recent convergence of the Sharpe ratios for Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that the two hard assets now offer comparable risk-to-reward profiles to their investors.
Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer shed light on this development, recommending a 4:1 goal-to-Bitcoin ratio from an allocation perspective.
Related: Bitcoin ‘blow-off top’ set at $128K with new all-time highs in sight
Strong Bitcoin volumes “final straw” before new highs
Crypto researcher Aylo analyzed BTC’s historical price action when the crypto asset consolidates near its all-time high level. In an X post, the analyst explained,
“The data shows when BTC gets close to its previous ATH during a strong, accelerating trend with high momentum, it has historically broken out to new ATHs within a short time (days to weeks).”
However, weaker trends have led to stalls or retraces between March and May 2024. Currently, Bitcoin exhibits a strong trend but lacks the necessary trading volume, which remains the final straw to confirm a breakout, a factor that could delay upward movement.
Alyo added that for Bitcoin to break its all-time highs, daily trading volume should exceed the previous 10 days, be at least 1.5 times the 20-day average, and ideally sustain a 3-day increase while the price holds steady or rises.
Data from CryptoQuant has reinforced Aylo’s concerns about trading volume. On May 21, retail investor demand for Bitcoin, defined as wallets buying/selling between $0 and $10,000, remained low at just 3.2% over 30 days, despite BTC trading within $2,000 of its all-time high.
Bitcoin’s retail investor volumes. Source: CryptoQuant
For comparison, bullish retail demand accounted for approximately 30% in December 2024—nearly 10 times higher than current levels—even though Bitcoin was well below, at a price range of $96,000 to $97,000.
Related: How high can Bitcoin price go?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
