Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high after a temporary trade agreement between the United States and China eased macroeconomic fears and boosted investor confidence.
Bitcoin (BTC) set a new high of $109,400 on May 21, rising more than 26% in the past month, according to data from TradingView. This climb to a record high came nine days after the White House announced a 90-day trade agreement between the US and China on May 12, temporarily slashing import tariffs to 10%.
BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The 90-day tariff suspension and the cooperative tone in negotiations removed the risk of “sudden re-escalation,” which had a significant impact on risk appetite among traditional and cryptocurrency investors, Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph.
US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were seen as the biggest macroeconomic threat to traditional equities and cryptocurrency markets in 2025.
Bitcoin briefly fell to a year-to-date low of $74,434 on April 7, five days after Trump announced his reciprocal import tariffs on April 2, sending shockwaves across global markets, with the S&P 500 losing more than $5 trillion in value, its largest drop to date.
Bitcoin started its recovery on April 9 after Trump’s Liberation Day marked the “climax of uncertainty” for market participants, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Consultancy, told Cointelegraph at the time.
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Bitcoin entered May with “near-flawless setup”
Bitcoin kicked off May with a “near-flawless setup, catalyzed by a rare alignment of geopolitical de-escalation, improving regulatory optics and macroeconomic tailwinds,” according to Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex exchange.
“The Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks have defused one of the primary geopolitical volatility engines of the past two years,” Kooner told Cointelegraph, adding:
“Rather than triggering capital flight from Bitcoin — as often seen when risk wanes — this easing is unlocking a risk-on rotation. We’re seeing capital rotate into BTC and high-beta tech as the need for geopolitical hedging fades, but liquidity remains abundant.”
The capital rotation reflects a “maturing narrative” as “Bitcoin is no longer just a fear hedge — it’s increasingly a high-conviction risk asset in periods of macro stability,” Kooner said.
Source: Donald J. Trump
Russia and Ukraine “will immediately start negotiations towards a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War,” Trump said in a May 19 X post, summarizing his two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Related: Ukraine strategic Bitcoin reserve bill reportedly in final stages
Still, funding rates need to remain neutral and open interest stable for a “consecutive setup” that may ignite a Bitcoin rally to above $114,000 to $120,000, which may be catalyzed by any “macro or regulatory spark,” Kooner said.
Other analysts have predicted a Bitcoin rally to above $130,000 before the end of 2025, based on BTC’s close correlation with the global money supply.
BTC projection to $132,000 on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts
The increasing money supply may push Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 before the end of the year, as investor demand is driven by the growing fiat money debasement, predicted Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.
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